To Recess or Not

Are we in a recession? How long will it last? One CNN article says 2009. Here are the comments:

It always seems that every time there is a recession, people start commenting on how“well that’s it, party’s over, get ready for a permanent decline in the standard of living”And then a new era of growth begins. Now in the 80’s it was largely a result of massive defense spending, but a lot of people made money on Wall St.In the early 90’s the ‘party was over’ again, and then we had the internet explosion.Now, again ‘the party is over’ but I think that we are on the edge of a new era of energy production. Real energy production - geothermal and chemosynthetic. There will be a huge energy boom soon (once the oil industry reps are out of the White House perhaps?).Another poster is right - these reporters love to jump on the gloom and doom wagon as soon as possible and scare the heck out of regular people who do not understand the nuances of the market.
I’ve never seen more of our citizens here (mostly retired) tighten up. A 2K version of the 1930s seems a certainty. Less familial dependence, more gardens, wind generators, barbwire, and ammo - the older among us seem to have a strong inkling as to what’s next and many have said ‘We won’t be spending our way out of THIS one’.

I agree with Reality, why is it that the people who have borrowed more than they can repay have to be bailed out by the people who are saving money & trying to take care of themselves. Everything is backwards, teach saving, not spending & Berneke, you need to quit reducing interest rates, the people who learned from the depression & saved money, now are being punished again by the low interest rates.

I remember in college in 88 my Economics professor saying that you can spur the economy two ways. The easy way is to encourage the masses to spend, the prudent way is to encourage the masses to save and invest. The second being substantive and slow, the first being fast and built on sand. I remember that because we were coming out of the early 80’s when a GOOD mortgage rate was 13-15% and Reagan was pushing spending. It was a great quick fix that lasted close to 20 years, but here comes the wave, and there goes the sand.

The Village at Lake Norman

Are we crazy? I loved the opinion piece in today's Charlotte Observer in the Local & State section. I live in Birkdale Village and I am all for Mixed Use Communities. I also lived in Germany with their tight knit village surrounded by farm fields and wild live areas interconnected with biking and walking paths - mixed use is a phenomenal way to life.

However, I predict that the Village at Lake Norman by Cornelius Bromont LLC will be a disaster for Cornelius and the North meck area. We are already suffering a retail glut. The entire length of Catawba will soon be more retail shopping centers, the shoppes at Birkdale is going in on 73, and the new center just opened behind the existing Target at Exit 25. The Village at Lake Norman itself will probably be successful but at what price to the other existing shopping centers?

1 - Northcross Shopping Center will definitely suffer - Old Navy is already closing its location there in favor of the new store on exit 36. And if a Super Target does go in, Target will close the existing store here as well. Make that two empty big box stores about 1 mile from the Village at Lake Norman.

2 - Birkdale will suffer - Birkdale already has ten vacancies. That has to hurt the current facility owners. And now two more chains are filing for bankruptcy:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080220/retail_bankruptcies.html

3 - Catwaba Ave looks terrible as it is. Do we need another reason to add to the vacant run down shops on this road too?

Overall, the entire 77 corridor is over building on retail. How can new home permits be plunging while new retail construction is sky rocketing? My partners and I personally spent the past year trying to find a viable commercial retail site to build on but we couldn't make any of the numbers work. Everything currently being built is speculative. It would be way better for the local governments to be conservative now and keep the land undeveloped and pristine for future development than to try to redevelop future run-down and vacant shopping centers. Does Cornelius want to be the next Independence boulevard? No one I know says, "Oh, look at that vacant shopping center what a great place to live!" However, everyone I know wants a piece of nature to live next to.

I hope we get smart about our growth. Here's the opinion article in the obersver today in case you missed it: "Don't dive right into growth"

Birkdale Village Real Estate Winter 2008

So how are Birkdale village homes faring in the national slow down?
My answer would be that they are faring quite well comparatively. Home sales have definitely slowed down in the village but they continue to sell and they continue to appreciate. My neighbor just bought last fall and refinanced last week and he's seen appreciation according to the appraisal. That was a pleasant surprise. I think the biggest reason they continue to hold up is that people looking to move to North Charlotte look at Birkdale Village as a safe haven. It has additional value beyond the normal track home sub-division. Here's what I think Birkdale village offers:

1 - Birkdale Village Itself with all the shops (Barnes & Nobles, Starbucks, Movies, Live Music, etc.)
2 - The Birkdale Golf Course
3 - Next to Lake Norman
4 - Right off Highway 77 (so easy commute to Charlotte)
5 - Down the road from the future North Line Light Rail
6 - Immediately on the McDowell Creek Greenway
7 - Backs to 400 acres of woods with walking trails
8 - Birkdale fitness center is within the community
9 - 3 Supermarkets within the a quarter mile (Lowes Foods, Harris Teeter, and Food Lion)

We love all of these features. I go to the gym daily because it is right here. If we need an ingredient for dinner I run up the street to the supermarket. And we take our dog on his daily walk through the village and just the atmosphere and sense of life is exhilirating. Those are my thoughts as to why Birkdale has continued to sell. Every realtor I meet expects Charlotte's home sales to pick up in the warmer weather. I wonder if that is wishing thinking or will low rates and a backlog of people waiting to buy and moving to the Carolinas actually create the expected pickup?

Almost Spring in the Village

We've enjoyed a great winter. Not one bout of snow and extremely mild temperatures reaching into the 70s on some days. We've even had some badly needed rain. I'm hoping for more rain as spring progresses.
It's been a few months since I've really written on the topic of Birkdale (our son is now 7 months old so I've been a little distracted). Birkdale Village is doing well. It seems that as we are both out on our daily walks or at the gym we meet more and more people from the neighborhood. Its great having such a small community. Last week, my wife and I finally saw the inside renovations on a house that has the same floor plan as ours. When we moved into this house last year the sellers realtor lived in the village. She told us about how her neighbors had the same floor plan and how the had added an extension on the back, how they walled in their bonus room, and how they finished out their attic. Wow, that's a lot of changes. Well, last week, we happened to be walking in front of the house and the owner was out front and we started speaking with him. He as more than happy to show us his impressive modifications. What's funny is that we now see him and his wife all the time either walking in the village or driving through. We are seriously considering at least walling in our bonus room which is open a we go up the stairs and it was great that he let us see how it looks.
So the village is doing well and the trees are just starting to bloom (hopefully it is not too early and the don't get hurt by another cold snap). What's been great for the village shops is that the warm weather has kept Birkdale alive with people since everyone is enjoying the outdoors. I'm looking forward to the live music starting in a few months.

Associations to Explore

1 - GABA German American Business Association

2 - Link Silicon Valley

3 - Silicon Valley Association of Startup Entrepreneurs

Tempe Companies

1 - Solar Traffic Controls 1930 E. Third Street, Suite 21, Tempe, AZ 85281-2929 USA • 480.449.0222

2 - Limelight Networks 2220 W. 14th Street Tempe, Arizona 85281 USA