Gym Memberships do well in November

So I hit the gym tonight after work. I saw Mike Scotto, the head personal trainer, at the Birkdale Fitness Center. It seemed busy and I asked Mike how the gym was doing and he said exceptionally well. He said that they were booming right around Thanksgiving whereas usually they wait till Christmas and the New Year to boom. I wonder if they are up because the population is still exploding here or because existing residents are spending more money on health? Anyways, if you want to join the gym, ask for Mike and now is the best time of the year to do so because they roll out the best incentives. I reccomendd the personal training if you have never worked out before.
The news is full of contradicting reports and for the most part the village feels slower but I can't tell if that is a normal fall slow down after school starts and the weather cools or if that is the economy. I wonder how the Birkdale stores performed on black Friday? I guess that all depends on the weather. My friend that works at Barnes and Nobles says that they are doing well. I find that amazing because the place is never really packed. This past weekend in NJ, we went food shopping and the lines were twenty deep at the registers. I don't think that I have ever waited in any line around here (except maybe at Starbucks). The point of all this rambling is that I wonder how the stores are doing?

The Manhattan Effect

First off, Happy Thanksgiving everyone. We are enjoying it at my parents house in New Jersey. This morning I read the papers and it is amazing how many letters and editorials were decrying the property taxes up here. A few of these authors claimed that the entire middle class of New Jersey was fleeing or wanted to flee to North Carolina or Florida because of the horrendous tax burden. I thought that it was interesting as more and more people that I know from NJ are considering moving South (especially to Charlotte).
Additionally, my parents live in Jersey City which is directly across the Hudson River from Manhattan. Being only one subway (PATH) stop from Manhattan, Jersey City has boomed. When I went to high school it was abandoned railroad yards. Now it is miles and miles of condominiums, offices, and mixed use spaces. I think 50,000 residences have been built here between the Bayonne and George Washington Bridges. Where do all these people come from that can afford half a million dollar plus condos? Everyone I meet is an immigrant (smart ones working in banking or such) or from the mid west. Right on our street are so many people who are aspiring actors or investment bankers. Its amazing.
Anyways, I read article after article stating that Manhattan along with a few other signature cities has continued to surge ahead in property values because of 1) Big Wall Street Bonuses (Yes they still got $32 Billion worth this year) and 2) Overseas investors taking advantage of the weak dollar. Well, additionally, Jersey is booming because even though a 600 sqft 1 bedroom condo costs $800,000, that is only 40% of the price it would cost in Manhattan. Absolutely amazing!
Anyways, as prices and taxes continue to rise here so many non-investment banking people, are considering moving. I think that by extension (or third order effect) that Charlotte will continue to do well. The only question that I have is whether enough people will continue to move to Charlotte to offset the number of new homes built on former farm fields. I keep watching that Charlotte Observer which says that new home permits are way down, but are they down enough? Here’s hoping and a Happy Thanksgiving!

Stratford Forest Not A Great Deal

Well, unfortunately, our friends won’t be buying that house in Stratford Forest. It turns out that the home needed $30,000 worth of work on its inspection report. This is simply amazing. As I understand it the houses in Stratford forest were built about 20 years ago (give or take). Additionally, they were made entirely of wood (especially the siding) which is all starting to rot and the plumbing is in a class action lawsuit so that may all need to be replaced. This is unfortunate because this is the second home buyer that I know of that was scared away from Stratford forest because of the deteriorating condition of the homes. On paper it may look like a great deal compared to Birkdale but the homes seem to be crap.
All of the homes in Birkdale were built with Fiber cement siding and PVC piping. Saussy Burbank and Lyllian Floyd areknown as great area home builders so I think that we are safe from the same type of 20 year deterioration that Stratford Forest has experienced.
Our friends are now back to looking at homes in Birkdale because they feel that Birkdale is the only place that will hold its value if the market continues to worsen. Does anyone else know of any other areas that they think will hold their value well?

Stratford Forest

Congratulations to our friends. They just bought a house in Stratford Forest. Stratford Forest is the sub-division right across McDowell Creek from Birkdale. Now all we need to do is build a bridge across the creek. They just pulled out of a new home contract in Moss Creek. Moss Creek is going down hill as the builder slashes prices and resales are sitting. They figure that they are better off next to Birkdale where home values have actually risen over the year.

Congratulations!

Dog Park

Has anyone been to the Ramsey Creek Dog Park recently? We haven't been to the park since the spring time. Have Charlotte Mecklenburg's new Dog Park guidelines taken effect? Are the parks free or do we still require a token for access.

I don't agree with CharMeck's decision to let the dog parks be open access because the registration requirement kept the park clean and safe with all dogs vaccinated and such.

If you want to know more about the Ramsey Creek Dog Park then read my earlier post: click here.

Otherwise, let me know how the dog park is faring.

Birkdale Village New Urbanism Case Study

What a neat looking map of the Birkdale Communities? I found this map on a website that posted a UNC Watershed Assessment of the Birkdale Village Community. Some interesting facts are that Birkdale has 6.2 Units per acre (really 7.2 units per acre if one discounts the fact that 7.4 acres are dedicated as McDowell Creek watershed. Overall, the study was favorable of Birkdale's high density walking community. It's one critique of the site plan is that Birkdale Village's 8 acres of parking lots creates significant run off that can be easily contaminated with oil and other pollutants. What was interesting is the note that someday (not before 2010) the parking lots may be built on for additional store fronts and apartments. That would be interesting especially if more parking was added in semi-hidden parking structures.
I wonder if or when that would happen. Would the town let it?

Anyways, enjoy the map and the knowledge that the case study's author thinks that Birkdale Village is a great success.

Pier One Kids Bankrupt Too

After researching what's happening to Bombay I wondered about some other recent closures in Birkdale. It seems that Pier One Kids met the same fate as Bombay. It seems that Pier One has been losing money for more than a year. $56 Million in this latest quarter. Here's the press release announcing the closure of the Pier One Kids stores:

FORT WORTH, Texas — Pier 1 will close all 33 of its Pier 1 Kids stores by Oct. 31
and its 24 clearance stores by July 31 to focus on its full-line units, the retailer’s president and CEO said today. In total, the company will close 100 stores this year, Alex Smith said in a conference call with securities analysts.
“We need to focus 100% of our attention on our core business, the Pier 1 Imports stores,” said Smith. He made the comments while discussing Pier 1’s earnings for the first fiscal quarter ended June 2, which included a net loss of $56.4 million, compared with a loss of $23.2 million a year earlier, and sales of $356.4 million, down 5%.
In addition to closing stores, he said the company will exit its e-commerce and catalog sales activities by Oct. 31, although it will keep its pier1.com Web site for marketing purposes. The moves will leave the company with 1,020 stores in the United States and 80 in Canada.

I am amazed the Pier One didn't try to sell its kids stores to another brand. Maybe they wanted control over their own destiny? Or maybe no one would buy them because they were not making money? At least Pier One still has its main store in Birkdale. I like the store although I must admit that we haven't bought much in this one either.

So now the question is what would make a good fit for this former Pier One Kids space? It seems too big for a boutique. I think it would make a good fit for a Kid's Time - a short term daycare place for parents that need to run an errand, grab dinner, or whatever. Rumor has it that the one over by Target (on the other side of 77) is always full and pretty much requires reservations. I also heard another rumor that Dicks might be leaving Birkdale as well. Wow, that is a big space.

Anyways, I am sure that there are plenty of retailers angling to get into Birkdale. When I spoke to th enew property management company, the said that they bought Birkdale in May ( I heard that they paid $99 Million) and that they would start this fall really analyzing the spaces and trying to fill new tenants in the now five open stores. I imagine that the other tenants are not too happy because all of those empty stores could be filled and attracting more shoppers rather than sitting empty and weighing the place down. Well, let's see what happens.

What do you think should go into the former Pier One Kid's space?